BettingBetting Fantasy Football: Sleepers and Busts from the

These oddsmakers ratings are an imperfect measurement, but it does reveal some valuable information. For instance, Doug Martin has the third-best odds of leading the league in rushing despite being ESPN’s 8th ranked running back. Occasionally these discrepancies can be explained by a player’s role within their offense. Do they receive goal line carries? Do they offer value as a receiver? Are they injury prone? These are all serious concerns for Martin, which makes him the ultimate boom or bust player.

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In order to fully exploit these oddsmakers rankings, you need to compare similar players. David Johnson has the 11th best odds to league the league in rushing, but he’s also the favorite to lead the league in total touchdowns. Jamaal Charles has better odds of leading the league in rushing yards, but that doesn’t make him a superior player. Charles has suffered several major injuries over his career, which makes him a huge risk. Johnson provides additional value as a receiver, which needs to be taken into consideration. For what it’s worth, anybody drafting David Johnson should select backup Chris Johnson as a handcuff in later rounds.

Wide Receiver

Player Odds (8/29) Oddsmaker Rank ESPN Rank Difference
Antonio Brown +500 1 1 0
Julio Jones +700 2 3 1
Odell Beckham Jr. +1000 3 2 -1
DeAndre Hopkins +1000 3 4 1
Jordy Nelson +1400 5 8 3
A.J. Green +1600 6 5 -1
Alshon Jeffery +2500 7 10 3
Dez Bryant +2500 7 7 0
T.Y. Hilton +2600 9 17 8
Allen Robinson +2800 10 6 -4
Amari Cooper +2800 10 14 4
Sammy Watkins +3300 12 12 0
Keenan Allen +3300 12 16 4
Demaryius Thomas +3300 12 15 3
Brandon Marshall +3300 12 9 -3
Brandin Cooks +3300 12 13 1
Mike Evans +3300 12 11 -1
Doug Baldwin +4000 18 19 1
Golden Tate +4300 19 24 5
Jeremy Maclin +4300 19 21 2
Jarvis Landry +4300 19 20 1
Eric Decker +5000 22 23 1
Emmanuel Sanders +5750 23 26 3
Jordan Matthews +6250 24 31 7
John Brown +6250 24 30 6
Marvin Jones +6250 24 33 9
Kelvin Benjamin +6600 27 28 1
Julian Edelman +7500 28 18 -10
Donte Moncrief +8000 29 25 -4
DeSean Jackson +8500 30 32 2
DeVante Parker +10000 31 36 5
Randall Cobb +10000 31 22 -9
Willie Snead +10000 31 43 12
Kevin White +10000 31 38 7
Larry Fitzgerald +10000 31 29 -2
Michael Floyd +10000 31 28 -3
Steve Smith +17500 37 50 13
Allen Hurns +17500 37 34 -3
Corey Coleman +30000 39 47 8
Dorial Green-Beckham +30000 39 70 31
Vincent Jackson +30000 39 44 5

Underrated: Lamar Miller, LeSean McCoy, Thomas Rawls, Arian Foster, Justin Forsett, Matt Jones

For anybody interested in Daily Fantasy (DFS) make sure to check out Fantasy Labs for access to Pro Models, Lineup Optimizer and other unique data for your Week 1 lineup.

Overrated: Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Stewart

+2500 16 5 -11 Mark Ingram +2500 16 9 -7 DeMarco Murray +3300 19 21 2 Ryan Mathews +3300 19 20 1 Jeremy Hill +3300 19 18 -1 Latavius Murray +3300 19 19 0 Justin Forsett +3500 23 39 16 Jay Ajayi +3500 23 37 14 Jeremy Langford +3500 23 22 -1 Frank Gore +3500 23 28 5 Matt Forte +3500 23 17 -6 Melvin Gordon +4500 28 25 -3 Chris Ivory +5000 29 33 4 Rashad Jennings +6000 30 29 -1 LeGarrette Blount +7500 31 43 12 Ameer Abdullah +7500 31 32 1 Isaiah Crowell +10000 33 41 8 T.J. Yeldon +10000 33 30 -3 Chris Johnson +10000 33 56 23 Derrick Henry +10000 33 34 1 Giovani Bernard +17500 37 31 -6 James Starks +30000 38 42 4 Jordan Howard +30000 38 57 19 Tevin Coleman +30000 38 44 6

Underrated: Steve Smith, Marvin Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Jordan Matthews, Golden Tate

The ESPN ranking system is based on a standard scoring format, so obviously the results are skewed for anybody participating in a PPR league. That also helps explain why two of the most overrated wide receivers (Julian Edelman and Randall Cobb) are undersized, possession receivers. That said, one of my favorite sleepers falls in the same category.

During his rookie season, Willie Snead tallied 69 receptions for 984 yards in 15 games. Despite that production and his prominent role in a pass-heavy offense, Snead is currently the 43rd ranked receiver. He’s ranked behind popular lottery tickets Kevin White and Sterling Shepard, but neither of those players have played a single NFL snap. Drew Brees is the favorite to lead the league in passing yards, it’s fair to expect even better numbers from Snead this season.

In comparing similar players, I would strongly recommend that fantasy managers select Lamar Miller over the higher ranked Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have a tremendous offensive line and I have no doubts about Elliott’s talent, but he’s not a proven commodity.

Overrated: Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Floyd

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