BettingBetting Fantasy Football: Sleepers and Busts from the

BettingBetting Fantasy Football: Sleepers and Busts from the Oddsmakers – Sports Insights

It’s important to note that these oddsmakers rankings only examine the odds to lead the league in passing yards, so the rankings for mobile quarterbacks are highly skewed. These oddsmaker rankings fail to correctly pinpoint the value of players like Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson and Marcus Mariota, so they will not be included in either list.

Underrated: Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins

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Running Back

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Player Odds (8/29) Oddsmaker Rank ESPN Rank Difference
Adrian Peterson +600 1 1 0
Todd Gurley +750 2 2 0
Doug Martin +900 3 8 5
Lamar Miller +900 3 7 4
Ezekiel Elliott +975 5 3 -2
Le’Veon Bell +1100 6 6 0
LeSean McCoy +1400 7 12 5
Jamaal Charles +1400 7 11 4
Eddie Lacy +1700 9 10 1
Thomas Rawls +1700 9 16 7
David Johnson +1900 11 4 -7
Arian Foster +2000 12 24 12
Carlos Hyde +2000 12 14 2
C.J. Anderson +2000 12 15 3
Jonathan Stewart +2200 15 13 -2
Matt Jones +2500 16 23 7
Devonta Freeman

十月 2, 2016 1 Sportting Betting

Overrated: Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer

Our method is simple: we compare the ESPN positional rankings with the league leader futures over at 5Dimes — a well-respected offshore sportsbook. By highlighting the largest discrepancies between ESPN’s rankings and the oddsmaker rankings, we are able to find the top values for fantasy managers. A positive number represents a potential sleeper while a negative number reflects a potential bust.

Quarterback

Player Odds (8/29) Oddsmaker Rank ESPN Rank Difference
Drew Brees +550 1 5 4
Ben Roethlisberger +750 2 6 4
Andrew Luck +900 3 4 1
Philip Rivers +900 3 11 8
Matt Ryan +1000 5 21 16
Aaron Rodgers +1100 6 2 -4
Eli Manning +1100 6 9 3
Carson Palmer +1200 8 7 -1
Kirk Cousins +2000 9 13 4
Matthew Stafford +2100 10 16 6
Blake Bortles +2200 11 10 -1
Tom Brady +2500 12 8 -4
Joe Flacco +2600 13 23 10
Russell Wilson +3300 14 3 -11
Ryan Tannehill +3300 14 20 6
Derek Carr +3300 14 14 0
Ryan Fitzpatrick +3500 17 19 2
Tony Romo +4000 18 32 14
Jameis Winston +5000 19 18 -1
Cam Newton +5000 19 1 -18
Brock Osweiler +5000 19 22 3
Andy Dalton +5000 19 17 -2
Jay Cutler +5750 23 24 1
Marcus Mariota +6250 24 15 -9
Alex Smith +7500 25 27 2
Teddy Bridgewater +8500 26 26 0
Robert Griffin III +10000 27 25 -2
Sam Bradford +10000 27 29 2
Mark Sanchez +12500 29 39 10
Tyrod Taylor +12500 29 12 -17
Jared Goff +13500 31 36 5
Blaine Gabbert +15000 32 31 -1
Geno Smith +15000 32 42 10
Carson Wentz +17500 34 41 7
Colin Kaepernick +20000 35 35 0
Jimmy Garoppolo +27500 36 34 -2
Josh McCown +27500 36 38 2
Paxton Lynch +30000 38 37 -1

Last season this strategy had some success, although there were certainly a few major whiffs. We had tremendous success at the quarterback position, recommending that managers take Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr and Jameis Winston in later rounds. All of those players outperformed their average draft position. We also recommended that managers avoid Tony Romo entirely, and he played only four games due to injuries.

Given the depth of the position, I’m a big proponent of waiting to select a quarterback this season. Instead of taking an elite quarterback early, managers would be well served to wait until the later rounds and take some combination of Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. By selecting the best matchup on a week-to-week basis, managers may be able to replicate the production of top-ranked quarterbacks.

The NFL is back and that brings the welcome return of fantasy foot ball. Over the past few years we have used oddsmaker’s projections to shed new light on fantasy rankings, and the results have been overwhelmingly successful.

We also projected a breakthrough season for Martavius Bryant, who was incredibly productive after serving his four-game suspension. Unfortunately, the veteran receivers we highlighted (Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson) all failed to impress.

Unfortunately, our recommendations for running backs were slightly less accurate. We pinpointed Cowboys running back Joseph Randle as a potential steal, but teammate Darren McFadden finished as the team’s top rusher. We also said to avoid Mark Ingram and Lamar Miller — both of whom posted tremendous seasons. On the bright side, fantasy managers would have done well to follow our advice to select Chris Ivory and Todd Gurley.

In terms of potential value, Matt Ryan looks like a late round steal. The Falcons quarterback has the fifth-best odds of leading the league in passing yards, yet he’s just the 21st-ranked quarterback according to ESPN. Our oddsmakers rankings don’t account for statistical categories like touchdowns or interceptions, but this type of inconsistency is tough to ignore.

This season we will once again analyze the three major positions looking for the best and worst values according to the oddsmakers. This list should be used alongside your normal rankings in order to highlight players that are being drafted too high or low.

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