BettingBetting MLB MVP Odds – Sports Insights – 1(3)

David Solar

In the National League, Harper looks like a strong bet to repeat. Most projections have the Nationals earning a playoff berth with Harper leading the league in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That said, I think that Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (+1400) could be another undervalued bet. Teammate Kris Bryant (+900) may have the higher long-term ceiling, but he’s young and inexperienced. Rizzo is still only 26-years old and has slashed .282/.386/.519 with 63 home runs and 179 RBI over the past two seasons.

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The section below was published on March 22, 2016

(BAL) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 N/A Jackie Bradley Jr (BOS) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1200 N/A N/A N/A

When this article was first published, we pointed out that it was interesting to see that Trout opened with better odds of winning the MVP than Harper — especially when considering that the Angels win total (81) is substantially lower than the Nationals win total (88). If the Angels finish the season with a record of 81-81 or worse, it would be exceedingly unlikely that Trout would win the MVP Award. In fact, since 1931 there have only been seven winners from a non-winning team:1952 NL — Hank Sauer, Chicago Cubs, 77-771958 NL — Ernie Banks, Cubs, 74-801987 NL — Andre Dawson, Cubs, 76-851989 AL — Robin Yount, Milwaukee Brewers, 81-811991 AL — Cal Ripken, Jr., Baltimore Orioles, 67-952003 AL — Alex Rodriguez, Texas Rangers, 71-91

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It’s also worth noting that there are several discrepancies between the odds at Bovada and BetOnline, which is highlighted best by Boston’s Mookie Betts (+900 vs. +2800) and Houston’s Carlos Correa (+1600 vs +3300). Considering that the Red Sox are the favorite to win the American League, the 23-year old Betts could provide excellent value at +2800.

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We also pointed out that there were two intriguing long shot candidates in the American League: Jose Bautista (+2500) and Jose Abreu (+3300). For what it’s worth, bettors can find Joey Bats at +2800 at Bovada which highlights the importance of shopping the best line.

However, when Bovada posted MVP odds Harper (+200) was listed with shorter odds than Trout (+225). There’s very little doubt that Trout will once again post an impressive slash line, but his team’s performance could hinder his MVP prospects.

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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