Since the start of the season, only a handful of teams have been projected into the NFL playoff picture by AccuScore each week: the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs and Seahawks. The Titans, Ravens and Falcons were predicted to make the postseason even before the season kicked off.
Meanwhile, there have been surprising teams playing better than expected, namely the Eagles and Rams. Then, there are teams that have far underperformed for various reasons, namely the Broncos, Giants and Cowboys.
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Let’s take a look at the updated NFL playoff picture entering Week 13. Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs and how they have changed.
AccuScore’s odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
|New England Patriots||0.99||0|
|New Orleans Saints||0.85||-0.05|
|Kansas City Chiefs||0.81||-0.14|
|Green Bay Packers||0.01||-0.01|
|Tampa Bay Bucs||0.01||0|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0|
NFL playoff odds changes
Biggest improvements to playoff chances entering Week 13:
Buffalo Bills (+26%): Even though it looks like a tough road for Buffalo to reach the playoffs, their move back to QB Tyrod Taylor makes a big difference for their postseason probabilities. Still, the Nathan Peterman experiment cost Buffalo one loss that might be the difference-maker at the end of the season.
Minnesota Vikings (+16%): The seven-game win streak has lifted the Vikings from third place in their own division to second place in their conference. Notably, the last two wins over the Rams and Lions boosted Minnesota’s playoff probabilities. They can ensure a postseason berth with a road wins against Carolina and Atlanta.
L.A. Rams (+14%): The Rams are currently predicted to be out of the playoffs by the narrowest of margins because they have tough games ahead against the Eagles, Seahawks and Titans. If they can pick up multiple wins in that stretch, however, the Rams would likely make the playoffs.
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Biggest drops in playoff chances entering Week 13:
Jacksonville Jaguars (-19%): The Jaguars couldn’t pull off a victory against Arizona, which resulted in Tennessee becoming the probable winner of the AFC South. The Jags will have their next three games at home before finishing on the road; three wins will probably be enough for at least a wild-card spot.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14%): The Chiefs have been on top of the AFC West since the slide of the Broncos after Week 4. However, K.C. is not on top of its game right now. The Chiefs are still leading a weak division, but improvements are needed if they want to make the postseason.
Dallas Cowboys (-11%): It looks like Ezekiel Elliott’s impact on Dallas’ offensive performance is bigger than predicted. He is suspended until Week 16, and that might be too much for the Cowboys to cover, especially when they are fighting only for a wild-card spot, well behind the Eagles in the division and with three NFC South teams ahead in the standings.
AccuScore’s NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.